Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 10.368248 11.898596 13.545140 15.444581 17.571333 19.875137 22.555429
2025-11-02 8.073406 10.138268 12.532283 15.497287 19.053847 23.164984 28.257708
2025-11-09 6.925120 9.217491 12.005370 15.615803 20.134802 25.568688 32.557647
2025-11-16 5.962102 8.372283 11.434117 15.562097 20.928254 27.608652 36.486371
2025-11-23 5.193076 7.648178 10.889538 15.415743 21.495062 29.291054 39.942097
2025-11-30 4.655724 7.161173 10.586420 15.522389 22.347284 31.330755 43.904400
2025-12-07 4.314569 6.901035 10.549127 15.955037 23.622809 33.948028 48.705344
2025-12-14 3.836339 6.385521 10.096499 15.751946 23.980099 35.312071 51.844945
2025-12-21 3.302122 5.726007 9.370365 15.084195 23.612153 35.623514 53.508478
2025-12-28 3.107585 5.573814 9.381374 15.490622 24.798701 38.147092 58.348968
2026-01-04 2.902622 5.382161 9.310845 15.757633 25.777553 40.397453 62.870439
2026-01-11 2.636513 5.061094 9.007403 15.634631 26.146980 41.757601 66.134216
2026-01-18 2.382229 4.739926 8.685068 15.468777 26.454164 43.059465 69.402558
2026-01-25 2.188127 4.505491 8.486495 15.486235 27.043342 44.804410 73.397488
2026-02-01 2.034646 4.327890 8.366475 15.617460 27.807589 46.831116 77.874079
2026-02-08 1.865713 4.103478 8.145733 15.559164 28.251938 48.367765 81.641179
2026-02-15 1.701093 3.869597 7.887728 15.414470 28.536140 49.649980 85.041610
2026-02-22 1.587658 3.725166 7.779163 15.520516 29.238467 51.615445 89.573902
2026-03-01 1.526552 3.681301 7.852647 15.953337 30.513691 54.548060 95.740108
2026-03-08 1.391551 3.468103 7.587869 15.750187 30.670304 55.644904 98.969179
2026-03-15 1.216887 3.149423 7.092089 15.082527 29.967617 55.276219 99.775949
2026-03-22 1.173755 3.118429 7.163146 15.488906 31.200484 58.199860 106.108214
2026-03-29 1.118930 3.054954 7.163014 15.755895 32.188279 60.735172 111.863915